Contingency Planning

As mentioned previously in admin scripting, coming up with scenarios of possible problems and how to prevent, mitigate or just plain survive them is an important skill for a pilot.

I've heard some people say that they are constantly planning the next spot of the ground for an emergency landing. Maybe they do, maybe it helps them. Personally, I find myself busy enough tracking other things going on inside the plane, monitoring instruments, my position over the ground and scanning for traffic. Picking a spot to set down takes 2 seconds, tops, and can generally be done at the same time that I'm trimming the plane for its best glide speed. You can spend a little more time scanning for a better place to put 'er down, but that first, 2 second, choice is often the best.

My plane's engine still gives good compressions (68/80 or better on all 4 cylinders) while getting really close to TBO (1938.56 of 2000). It's not like an engine will quit suddenly at 2000 hours, but the odds are rising steadily.

So, when I'm planning a trip from my home airport in Highgate, Vermont to Erie, PA; I choose a route that gives me lots of options. They have radar and an approach controller at Wheeler-Sack airport at Fort Drum who will give you clearance if the airspace is quiet, but those mountains and the miles and miles of just nothing don't go away. Crossing them in mid-winter in a plane whose single engine is close to TBO is somewhere between nervous and foolhardy. You'll notice there's another path south to Glen's Falls and then Rome (Griffiss) to Syracuse. It's another contingency in the event that the northern route has bad weather.

This also lets me follow VOR's which is great because it's good practice and a fall back if my GPS fails. Unfortunatey, this is just not a friendly environment for x-country flying and no instrument rating.

On this particular trip, the forecast was for 5000-6000' ceilings near the lake, but clear to scattered skies elsewhere. As I got to about Rochester, the clouds ahead looked less patchy and more like a wall ... a wall that went very low. Maybe +2000 AGL, which I regard as borderline scud running when over unfamiliar terrain. Looking back, landing in Rochester or Syracuse would have been better, but I decided to duck under the edge and stop at Buffallo. Visibility was still ok, maybe 5-6 miles, the ceiling was low, but I went around hills to keep an extra cushion and because they put towers on top of hills. I'm talking to KBUF approach and thumbing through my green AFD trying to glean what I can in spare seconds.

I just about flew exactly over BQR (Buffalo-Lancaster regional airport) before I noticed it on the GPS, told BUF that I was going to put down there, had it in sight and was requesting frequency change. I keep a binder in my flight bag with all the airports* I've visited and added ones along my route, but neither BUF nor BQR was really on my route, and weren't there. Luckily BUF and BQR are one the same page in the AFD, so I tuned in the CTAF, announced while I was turning around and turned on the runway lights.

The landing was smooth enough as the runway was recently plowed, but no discernable traction when I tried the brakes**. Fortunately the winds were pretty straight down the runway and I think they did as much to stop me as friction during rollout.

So I pulled off, stopped near the fuel pump, hit the head (which was wisely close by and unlocked), then

1. broke out the laptop and using the FBO's wifi [this is up there with GPS in terms of sheer usefulness]
2. checked the weather reports [terrible, with continued bad conditions for days]
3. got the FBO manager's contact number [again wifi Internet and cellphones make the pilot's life so much better it must seem like cheating to the old pelicans]
4. arranged to hangar my plane [waiting for flying weather looked foolish]
5. called to arrange a rental car and a taxi*** to get to it.
6. drove the rest of the way.

Two of the stanard contingencies when flying VFR are renting a car and booking a commercial flight. If it was just me and my stuff, getting a flight would have been easier, but with a 100 lb dog and all her gear, getting a full sized car was the way to go.

The fact is I had enough fuel to get to mid-Ohio at least and maybe even Indy on fumes. The clouds were low enough to fly on top where it was clear. Maybe it would have been fine. Maybe it would have cleared once I got past Lake Erie. But flying at night over a solid layer of low-lying clouds, unfamiliar terrain and low fuel is a really bad place to find out that the maybes I was hoping for didn't show up.

When the only contingency plans you have left is the choice between get it on the ground or die trying, you should have stopped following your last plan a while ago.

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* - Organized with divider pages by state and then in alphabetical by call-letters. I just print out the AOPA kneeboard page for each airport.

** - For the non-pilots: Having no traction is much less of an issue than you might think at first. Except at very slow speeds, the rudder in the back is far more important than the nose wheel in steering the plane left or right during landings. Some planes just let the nosewheel castor freely and depend on the brakes in the right and left main gear being activated independently.

*** - "Enterprise: We'll Pick You Up" but only during normal business hours and not to or from the airport where they have extended hours.